Net migration figures to be 35,000 higher than expected

Immigration soared due to the pandemic as the influx followed years of border restrictions, peaking at more than 550,000 in 2022-2023, but has fallen steadily since.

The latest figures put net overseas migration at 295,000 in 2025-26 and 245,000 in 2026-27, up from last year’s estimates of 260,000 this financial year and 225,000 in 2026-27.

This number is predicted to fall to 225,000 per year by the end of this decade, much closer to pre-pandemic levels.

The government has attributed the surprising increase in net migration – a blow to its efforts to reduce numbers – to migrants on temporary visas leaving Australia at lower rates than in the past.

“New Zealand citizen arrivals are also expected to remain strong, reflecting relatively favorable labor market conditions in Australia,” the budget documents said.

The government says its budget measures will put “downward pressure” on the figures.

They include the extension of a ban on temporary migrants buying established housing until 2029, new targets for the permanent migration program and adjustments to working holiday visas.

The government says the permanent program will prioritize onshore applications, with 70 percent of the 185,000 places going to skilled immigrants rather than family reunification visas.

“The Government will reform the Working Holiday Maker (WHM) program to better control numbers, reduce barriers to work, provide a fairer allocation of WHM visas and support Australia’s national interests,” the budget documents said.

Visa application costs for temporary graduate visas have also doubled, adding an estimated $1.2 billion to public coffers over five years, but the papers do not mention any estimated impact on the figures.

Immigration has been a hot topic in recent years, with particular focus on housing and infrastructure levels struggling to keep pace.

“Australia is and should always be a country where we judge you by who you are, not where you come from,” he said.

“People say they love Australia and I do too, and almost everyone on this continent does. They love modern Australia, and we are a multicultural nation.”

Opposition Leader Angus Taylor last month vowed to crack down on migration, introducing an “Australian values” test, the reintroduction of temporary protection visas, more money to deport people and an unspecified cut to overall migration.

Incoming One Nation MP David Farley initially said a net overseas migration figure of 306,000 was unlikely to be too high, before later clarifying: “One Nation will limit immigration to 130,000 per year”.

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