Iran war could make US president’s trip to see Xi Jinping in China a bit chillier than his first-term visit

But Beijing’s deep economic ties with Iran, as well as trade tensions over tariff threats dating back to Trump’s first term, could spoil the good feelings when Trump flies to Beijing this week — even as Republican President Xi has for years lavished praise and made clear he sees the Chinese leader as a competitor strong enough to warrant his respect and admiration.

Trump does not like long plane rides or long distances away from the White House or his properties in Florida and New Jersey. He is expected to spend only parts of three days on the ground in China.

There will be plenty of pomp and circumstance, but the grandeur is not expected to rival Trump’s first visit to China in 2017, which Beijing called a “state visit-plus.”

“Even before this whole fire with Iran, they were not going to do a state visit like last time just because things are tense,” said Jonathan Czin, former China director at the National Security Council during the Biden administration.

Xi’s ‘better understanding’ of Trump

During Trump’s first term trip, China rolled out the red carpet for his arrival, with a band playing military music and children waving flags and chanting “Welcome.”

Xi offered a tour of the Forbidden City. Trump and first lady Melania Trump even had a private dinner there. Trump was the first foreign leader since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949 to experience what was once reserved for emperors.

The next morning another welcoming ceremony took place in the Great Hall of the People, with a military parade. There was also a state banquet in Trump’s honor that included video highlights from the Chinese leader’s previous visit to Florida and a clip of Trump’s granddaughter Arabella singing in Chinese.

Beijing does not offer this spectacle to most visiting foreign leaders. When British Prime Minister Keir Starmer visited the Forbidden City in January, Xi was not present and the site remained open to the public. Starmer had to deal with tourists.

Ali Wyne, senior U.S.-China research and advocacy adviser for the nonprofit Crisis Group in Washington, said that “the Chinese delegation will likely do its utmost to ensure that Trump leaves Beijing convinced that he has just concluded the most extraordinary state visit of his two presidencies.”

But, he said, “the pomp and circumstance would play a different role now than when he first visited Beijing,” because “Xi has a much better understanding of Trump, and the administration’s own national security strategy and national defense strategy recognize China as a near-peer.”

Expectations about what will be accomplished may be lower this time, said Czin, now a fellow at the Brookings Institution. He predicted that the Chinese may not make any major breakthroughs on trade or anything else because they are “working backwards from our midterm elections” on the theory that the closer they get to Election Day “the more influence they will have.”

The Republican Party is focused on maintaining control of Congress, even as polls show most Americans are dissatisfied with Trump’s economic policies and believe the United States has gone too far in Iran. Still, the White House argues that Trump’s previous firm hand with Beijing on tariffs – which the Supreme Court subsequently struck down – means the US will remain in a strong position.

“President Trump cares about results, not symbols,” White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said. “Yet the president has a great relationship with President Xi, and the upcoming summit in Beijing will be important both symbolically and substantively.”

Trump and Xi may see each other a lot this year

Trump could meet with the Chinese leader four times in eight months.

After his visit to Beijing, Trump plans to receive Xi at the White House. Trump could also attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in Shenzhen, China. And Xi could come to the Group of 20 summit at Trump’s resort in Doral, Florida, next month.

Czin noted that Xi is also not keen on traveling, meaning not all planned meetings will take place. He said the Chinese leader also does not “maintain personal relationships” as Trump likes to do, noting that Xi led a Chinese military purge in January that included replacing officials with long-standing personal ties to his family.

However, Wyne said Xi “also appreciates that he is unlikely to face another American president who equally admires him and espouses a similarly narrow view of strategic competition.”

That means Xi “can try to pocket as many of Trump’s economic and security concessions as possible,” Wyne said.

Trump has long praised Xi

Trump told it The Wall Street Journal‘s editorial board in 2024 said that Xi was “actually a very good… I don’t want to say ‘friend’. I don’t want to be stupid. ‘He was my friend’. But I got along with him just fine.”

Trump even suggested at the time that military force might not be necessary to ensure Chinese troops do not enter Taiwan simply because the Chinese leader “respects me,” despite Trump recently discussing the possible sale of weapons to Taiwan.

Trump has continued to praise the bilateral relationship since returning to the White House, even after his visit to Beijing, originally scheduled for March, was postponed due to the early stages of the war with Iran.

He unsuccessfully urged China to get involved in reopening the Strait of Hormuz after Iranian forces choked it and disrupted world economies. But China used its influence as the largest buyer of Iranian oil to encourage Iran to agree to a fragile ceasefire.

Beijing has strong economic ties with Tehran, and the war could hurt the economy, which was already expected to grow more slowly. However, if China can help build lasting peace, it could boost its leverage in negotiations on trade issues with the Trump administration.

Trade issues are a sticking point

During his 2017 visit, Trump announced $250 billion in non-binding trade deals, some of which never materialized. A round of trade deals announced in 2020 worth US$200 billion ($276 billion) largely never materialized before Trump’s first term ended.

More recently, Trump’s announcement last year of high global tariffs prompted China to halt purchases of U.S. soybeans and restrict exports of rare earth minerals that U.S. factories need.

Tensions have eased somewhat since the U.S. reached a trade truce last fall, with limited tariffs on both sides. The administration has continued to make reducing the U.S. trade deficit with China a priority, insisting it can do so while still working to boost trade between the two countries.

“I expect great stability in the relationship,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said. “But that doesn’t mean our trade deficit can’t continue to decline.”

Kelly, the White House spokeswoman, said Trump “doesn’t travel anywhere without bringing results to our country.”

“Americans can expect the president to make more good deals for the United States while he is in China,” she said.

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